"Rain will overspread the state from southwest to northeast on Christmas morning as a storm system in Texas tracks through northern Louisiana and into northern Mississippi by evening. Colder air will wrap around the system with rain changing to snow in northern and western Arkansas. The changeover to snow will take place farther south and east after dark.
Through Tuesday night, three to six inches of snow is expected across roughly the northwest half of the state. Six to ten inch totals could occur in portions of the Ozark and Ouachita mountains and also in the northeast. Portions of central and east central Arkansas are expected to experience one to three inches of snow.
A sharp gradient of accumulating snowfall is expected with this type of system. A relatively small change in the track of this system would have a pronounced impact with regard to the placement of accumulating snowfall. Residents are advised to stay tuned to the latest forecasts.
In addition to the winter weather threat, this system is expected to produce conditions favorable for other weather hazards.
Strong thunderstorms will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening Christmas day across areas along and south of a line from Hermitage to Monticello to Dumas. Marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest storms.
Surface winds gusts of over 30 mph are expected to develop late Christmas night and continuing into much of Wednesday across much of central and eastern Arkansas.
This storm system will exit toward the Ohio valley on Wednesday. Another weaker system will approach from the southern plains Thursday night."