Computer models continue to come in better agreement with each other, increasing our confidence in the likelihood of a significant snow event developing as we work through Christmas day and especially into Christmas Night.
Before the snow begins, there will probably be a period of rain in the Little Rock metro area and points south, while north of Little Rock, a mixture of snow, sleet, and possibly some rain to start before transitioning to all snow.
Brisk northeast winds will continue to channel colder air into the region as the day progresses.
Things will begin to take shape this afternoon with precipitation overspreading the area and becoming all snow by evening. The heaviest snow will occur Christmas Night and into the early morning hours of Wednesday.
Winds will increase to 15-25mph into the night, causing blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures fall into the upper 20s. Snowfall totals will average 3-5 inches over the Little Rock metro area, with amounts increasing to 6-9 inches in areas west and northeast of Little Rock....Lesser accumulations to the southeast, but still accumulating snowfall is anticipated southward to Pine Bluff to Monticello. ( 1-3 inches )
The snow will end early Wednesday morning around sunrise or shortly thereafter, except lingering into mid morning across northeast Arkansas.
This will more than likely be a historic snowfall for Arkansas because of the rarity of it happening on Christmas Day.