A survey by Opinion Research Associates of Little Rock for the Arkansas News Bureau and Stephens Media Group shows President Bush and John Kerry each with 48 percent support from likely voters. The survey was taken last Monday through Wednesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Populist Party candidate Ralph Nader had one percent, and three percent were undecided. Two weeks before, the same poll showed Bush with a 52 percent to 43 percent advantage, which was still within the margin of error. Ouachita Baptist political science professor Hal Bass says it appears that Kerry is making a surge in Arkansas. Bass says the Democratic senator from Massachusetts is drawing benefits from his debate performance. Andrew Dowdle, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Arkansas, said other factors are at work, too. those include mixed economic news and continuing uncertainty in Iraq.